The domestic Spring Festival holiday, the foreign market is still continuing, and the international oil prices have always been a wind direction for the polyester market. During the Chinese people, the Chinese people's holidays, crude oil prices continued to create new high. For people in the polyester industry, there is this timing, whether the oil price is likely to soar to a high level of $ 100, and the polyester takes rid of the pre-supply situation to become the focus of many people!

International well-renowned investment banks: international oil prices or rising 100 US dollars per barrel

On February 4, New York Light crude oil futures prices have stood on the 91 US dollar per barrel in 7 years, while the Brent crude oil station is $ 92 per barrel. This will also rise international oil prices to rise for seventh week. On the 5th US stock market, the Brent crude oil futures station has 93 US dollars / barrel on the 5th, and it has renewed new high since October 2014. The WTI crude oil futures in the US stock market rose by 3%, approaching $ 93 / barrel, and creating new high since September 2014. Statistics show that from the beginning of December last year, crude oil prices opened the rising mode, Brent and WTI crude oil settlement price were 33.11% and 40.93% respectively.

Goldman Sachs predicts oil prices will break through 100 dollars in the third quarter. Morgan Stanley also predicts oil prices will break through 100 US dollars, and the commodity market performance will continue to win the stock this year.

Analysis said that oil prices have risen sharply, which is the supply reduction expectation brought by the cold weather in the United States, which further strengthens the risk of current market supply interruption. The market generally worrying that the continuous cold weather can affect the Yield of Texas, thereby intensifying the intense situation of the global crude oil market. In addition, the weather forecast, from Texas to the Ohio River Valley, there may be serious ice, market worried storm long drives, to Delde, Delta, may have adverse effects on the production of the largest oil production in the United States.

In addition, the current nervous geopolitics is still an important reason for the strong oil prices, and it is also the biggest hidden danger of future supply interruption risk. This is mainly from Russia and Ukraine, and the recent risk is difficult to relieve, which will continue to play the oil prices. In addition, from the fundamental surface of the supply, the OPEC + increased production of OPEC + is also one of the crude oil rising oil prices.

Overall, the current crude oil market is still tightly balanced. As the growth rate slows down, the supply continues to increase, supply and demand maintains relatively balance, if the geopolitical risk is retracted, OPEC + is increasing in accordance with the reduction in production agreement, the supply demand Gradually weaken. From a macro, the Fed will hit it once in March, June, in September this year, and after the interest rate hike is turned on, the commodity price is under pressure. Taking into account the lower position of crude oil, there is a support below the oil prices, and it is still based on high oscillation.

The international oil price rebounded into the polyester market into a congenic agent.

With the rise in international crude oil, the big commodity market in the festival is also floating. In 2022, domestic polyester market prices are expected to be improved in 2021.

The relationship between the chemical fiber industry and oil is very close. Analysts pointed out that crude oil price changes will affect the cost of petrochemical enterprises, which in turn affects the price of petrochemical products, plastics, rubber, and chemical fiber and other industries due to changes in raw materials, the price of its terminal products will also have a change. More than 90% of the chemical fiber industry is based on oil raw materials, polyester, nylon, acrylic, polypropylene, and polypropylene, and polypropylene, and polypropylene, and the demand for oil increased year by year. Therefore, after the price of crude oil rises sharply, the price of Sichuano oil, PX, PTA and other products followed, and the price of downstream polyester products is also indirectly transmitted. From the front, the price of polyester products has also been successful in early December last year, ushered in a wave of rising rising.

From the perspective of polyester production, the production and sales of polyester plant have ushered in greater fluctuations before the Spring Festival. Under the advantage of international oil prices and polyester raw materials, although polyester manufacturers have recently been stabilized, it can be seen from the production and sales chart. The overall production and sales of the polyester market in the Spring Festival are rising.

From the downstream demand, the recent national textile and clothing export data is released, allowing the market to see the signs of orders. According to customs statistics, January-December 2021, the cumulative export of textile and garments was 31.546 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.38%, an increase of 16.17% from 2019, of which the textile export was 14.52 billion US dollars, down 5.8%, and increased by 20.80% from 2019. The costume export is 170.263 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.0%, an increase of 12.48% from 2019.

It is understood that many companies in the Spring Festival have been in the order of the spring and summer fabrics, and the four quarters have been slowed down, and the overall order of the market is obvious to comparison with the same period last year.

The news surface is strongly supported, and the possibility of falling in crude oil is smaller from the middle and short-term short-term, or will continue to rise. From the polyester market, the current inventory inventory in the current polyester company is relatively reasonable. In the short term, as long as the oil price is not sharp, the polyester filament price is less likely to fall. For downstream weaving companies, there is a spare goods before the holiday, the raw material stock is still low, and the market will not buy the fell, the market or a wave of stocks, in summary, we expect the pre-predecessor polyester related product market market The rising trend will be maintained. However, the terminal textile orders have fell sharply with the Spring Festival factors, and the high inventory of the woven industry takes time to digest, market price or remain steady and has a rising situation!