On October 20th, Fu Linghui, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that since the beginning of this year, China's economy has withstood external pressure and internal difficulties, maintaining a "generally stable and steadily advancing" trend. Data shows that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters reached 101.5036 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.2% year-on-year at constant prices. Looking at it by quarter, it increased by 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter.

The growth rate in the third quarter moderately declined, but "stability" and "resilience" remained the main themes

The year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the third quarter dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared with that in the second quarter. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that this was mainly influenced by two factors: internationally, some countries imposed excessive tariffs and unilateralism intensified, leading to an increase in global economic and trade uncertainties. Domestically, the economy is in a critical period of structural adjustment. The transformation of old and new growth drivers is experiencing growing pains, and the growth momentum of some industries has slowed down.

However, the slowdown in growth rate has not changed the stable economic foundation. On the one hand, the economic aggregate in the third quarter reached 35.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the total of the world's third-largest economy in 2024. The growth rate of core CPI has expanded, while the decline in PPI has narrowed for two consecutive months. The total volume of goods imports and exports increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and foreign exchange reserves have risen for two consecutive months. On the other hand, Wang Haibing of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in the past decade, the growth rate has declined in the third quarter for seven years, which is a cyclical phenomenon. The decline of 0.4 percentage points not only reflects the precision of counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies but also highlights the "stable" tone and "resilient" characteristics of the economy. However, structural issues such as the simultaneous decline in the growth rates of added value in industry and services, as well as the simultaneous drop in consumption and investment, still need attention.

The cultivation of new quality productive forces is accelerating, and the momentum for high-quality development is strong

This year, the accelerated formation of new quality productive forces has become the core driving force for the optimization of the economic structure. Data shows that in the first three quarters:

The added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing accounted for 35.9% and 16.7% of the total industrial added value respectively.

The output of industrial robots, service robots and EMUs increased by 29.8%, 16.3% and 8.6% respectively.

The added value of industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing, shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing increased by more than 17% year-on-year, and the output of replacement products such as new energy vehicles and electric bicycles rose by more than 27%.

Zhou Mi of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the growth rate of high-tech manufacturing was significantly higher than the average level of the industrial sector, indicating that the internal driving force of enterprises has been strengthened, and technological innovation and the economy have formed a "virtuous interaction" - technological breakthroughs inject new impetus, and economic vitality in turn nourtures research and development innovation. Zhao Jianxiang from the China Center for Information Industry Development stated that China's complete industrial system and high-quality talent resources will provide support for the development of new productivity. In the future, technological innovation (breakthroughs in new technologies across all fields), industrial innovation (explosive growth in digital, low-carbon and other fields), and the integration of "artificial intelligence +" (upgrading of traditional industries) will continue to create new growth points.

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