Crude oil rebound, polyester market will be "anxious"!

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently made a surprise visit to Ukraine to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other government officials in Kiev. It also announced that $1.25 billion would be transferred to Ukraine from the latest $9.9 billion economic aid package. Oil prices will continue to be supported by continued aid to Ukraine and geopolitical tensions that are unlikely to cool in the short term.

Meanwhile, the energy "war" continues, with Russia halting oil shipments to Poland and the pipeline expected to supply 1.2 million tons of oil to Germany for the whole year, indicating that the supply side will remain tight, providing short-term support for oil prices. Generally speaking, the crude oil supply end tends to tighten in the case of limited capacity. While the demand side has the opportunity to reach record levels, oil prices still have the opportunity to strengthen further in the afternoon.

In recent 1-2 months, the supply of PTA increased significantly. With the restart of Honggang Petrochemical, Yisheng New Materials, Yisheng Dahua and other devices, the capacity utilization rate of PTA in February stabilized at about 75%, which increased by more than 10% compared with the low point of the previous year. In terms of new production capacity, Shandong Weilian Chemical has successfully put 2.5 million tons into production. It is currently in parking and ready to restart at the end of this month. Jiatong Energy is running at 90 percent of its 2.5 million ton capacity.

As the temperature rises, the industry will enter the traditional maintenance season, Honggang, Ineos, Yadong, Taihua, Dushan Energy and other facilities are scheduled to overhaul. If the low processing fee situation continues, the enterprise overhaul plan or in advance, the overhaul time is also possible to extend. Therefore, PTA in the second quarter is expected to contract supply, low processing fees under the price support is strong.

Demand returned to normal levels

Downstream polyester, the current operating rate has returned to normal levels. As of February 24, the comprehensive load of polyester was 85.9%, including 72.1% polyester filament, 84.3% polyester staple fiber and 91.1% polyester bottle chip. Terminal weaving, the operating rate has also returned to the normal level, as of February 24, Jiangsu and Zhejiang ammunition comprehensive work increased to 92%, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom comprehensive work increased to 75%. The willingness and potential of replenishment after the year are low, and the market perceives that the demand after the year is a little less than expected.

Since this year seems to have heard a lot of price information, open year market also created a "price atmosphere", but such a market deduction after nearly two months, the textile market has to face a real situation: the downstream fire has not been lit up!

After three years of the epidemic, both the country and the residents, "we do not dare to consume, although there are a variety of real estate, automobile and other related policies to boost, but consumer demand and economic recovery still need a long time, domestic demand is slowly recovering, foreign trade orders were" robbed ", the market "anxious" ah, under the cooperation of the leading, drive the positive sentiment of the market, The second half of 2023 can still be looked forward to!