Recently, there has been significant volatility in the international crude oil market. On April 20th, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures rose sharply after the opening, with an increase of nearly 7%, approaching the $100 per barrel mark once again. Due to the continuous escalation of the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the tightening of supply from oil-producing countries, the market's expectation of an end to the war and a fall in oil prices was dashed.

As the source of the textile and chemical fiber industry chain, the price of crude oil fluctuates in a high range. Through the rigid transmission chain of "crude oil → naphtha → PX → PTA → polyester → polyester fiber", the cost pressure is continuously passed on to the entire textile industry. According to calculations, for every $10 increase in the price of crude oil per barrel, the production cost of chemical fibers will increase by approximately 400 to 500 yuan per ton. Currently, the prices of petrochemical intermediates remain high, even if the price of polyester fiber shows a certain adjustment, the cost support is still strong, and the high cost and low profit situation faced by the industry is difficult to be alleviated in the short term. 

Affected by the sluggish demand from the downstream sector, the polyester filament market has recently witnessed a downward trend, with prices declining slightly each day. Within a week, the prices have dropped by 300 to 400 yuan per ton. The price reduction has failed to effectively stimulate downstream purchases, instead intensifying the观望 mood of weaving enterprises. Last week， the overall production and sales rate of polyester filament was only two to three percent， showing a persistent downturn. Weaving enterprises are concerned that there will still be significant fluctuations in oil prices in the future， so they mainly purchase raw materials based on urgent needs. Their stock preparation plans are concentrated from the end of April to the end of the month. At the same time， there are insufficient terminal orders and the transaction volume in the fabric market is sluggish. Therefore， enterprises are reluctant to increase their inventories rashly. 

As a result of this, the production rates of the textile industry chain have shown a divergence. The comprehensive production rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has dropped to 52.72%, and some small weaving factories have reduced production and shut down; the operation rate of the reeling process remains relatively stable, at around 75%, but it is still lower than the level of the same period in previous years. 

In contrast to the sluggishness in the upstream production of polyester fibers and weaving, the downstream markets for raw fabrics and dyeing factories are more active in trading. Although the printing and dyeing industry is facing pressure from rising costs of dyes, steam, and labor, the increase in dye prices is limited, and some enterprises have experienced cost overruns, the orders are still abundant, and the factory operating rates remain at a high level. The demand for white raw fabrics is strong, the prices of raw fabrics have risen slightly, and traders and secondary buyers have a high enthusiasm for purchasing. Most downstream merchants generally expect the prices to continue to rise in the future. On one hand, this is due to the high raw material costs and the closure of some small and medium-sized factories, which have led to a contraction in the supply side; on the other hand, the end of the traditional peak season combined with the rigid demand, the market still has expectations for an increase in the prices of raw fabrics and fabrics. Therefore, most traders take advantage of the current relatively low costs to moderately stockpile goods to prepare for the future. 

In the short term, international oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and are expected to remain in a state of high-level fluctuation. The price of polyester filament lacks the impetus for a significant rebound and is likely to continue in a weak consolidation mode. Under the dual pressure of insufficient orders and unstable costs, the production capacity of weaving enterprises may continue to operate at a low level, and their procurement strategies will maintain a demand-driven model of small batches and multiple shipments. The downstream fabric and printing and dyeing markets, under the joint influence of cost support and inventory demand, may maintain a firm price, with some upward potential, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price correction due to the decline in demand and accumulation of inventory in the later period. 

At present, the textile market is facing prominent contradictions, and enterprises need to respond rationally to the fluctuations in the market. Upstream polyester factories should reasonably control production capacity and optimize inventory structure; midstream weaving enterprises should focus on high-quality orders and strictly control raw material and finished product inventories; downstream traders should combine their own capital and sales capabilities when stocking up, make appropriate arrangements, and guard against risks brought by future price fluctuations. 

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